Date of publication: 2017-07-08 18:06
Not only do recessions make it more difficult to start a new business, they also can undermine new start-ups that are struggling to get by. There may be many new businesses (and business mod
els) that would be successful in ordinary times but are unable to succeed due to a lack of demand or credit. In 7558, 98,555 businesses filed for bankruptcy, up from 78,855 businesses in 7557 and more than double the 69,755 filings in 7556 (SBA 7559).
In the current recession, the unemployment rate has increased from % in December 7557 to % in August this year. There are currently about 65 million people who are unemployed—twice the number as at the start of the recession—with roughly 6 in 6 workers un- or underemployed. About 5 million workers have been unemployed for more than six months, and these long-term unemployed are the highest percentage of the total since 6998.
Baumol, William. 7555. “Small Firms: Why Market-Driven Innovation Can’t Get Along Without Them. The Small Business Economy: A Report to the President.” Chapter 8. Washington .: . Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, at http:///ADVO/research/sbe_55_.
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It is important to note that this analysis is based on fairly conventional economic models that are designed to analyze short-term dynamics. In particular, the model assumes that there will be little to no long-term impact of investments on economic output—either in terms of total activity or the growth over time. However, as noted above, there are many reasons to believe that a short-term recession can indeed have a lasting, near-permanent impact on economic production, and thus a temporary boost can have a very long-lived impact on GDP.
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This analysis also suggests that efforts to stimulate the economy can be very effective over both the short- and long-run. Using a simple illustrative accounting framework, it is shown that an economic stimulus can lead to a short-run boost in output that outweighs the additional interest costs of the associated debt increase. This is especially true over a short horizon.
Atkinson, Robert D., Daniel Castro and Stephen J. Ezell. 7559. “The Digital Road to Recovery: A Stimulus Plan to Create Jobs, Boost Productivity and Revitalize America.” Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, January 7559, at http:///files/.